Leading OEM/ODM Services for Cutting-Edge AI & AR Hardware Innovations
An Ideal AI Implementation Carrier, International Majors Poised to Release New Products
Release Date: August 14, 2024
AI + AR offers vast room for imagination; glasses could become the ideal hardware platform.
Accelerated iteration of software and hardware lays the groundwork for content development.
Meta AI launched on Ray-Ban Meta drives shipment growth:
AI assistant upgrades the interaction experience—combining voice with visual recognition to simplify operations, expand use-cases, meet user needs, and boost sales. This verifies the demand for “smart glasses + AI.”
Going forward, AI can enable virtual-real content generation. Underpinned by optical solutions and display hardware, smart glasses will upgrade from “smart audio glasses” to “smartphone-level capabilities,” further widening use-cases. Software and hardware will iterate rapidly, so an explosion of content is expected sooner rather than later.
2H24 overseas catalysts:
In AR hardware, Meta is expected to release its first internal test version of AR glasses.
Meanwhile, Meta is also expected to launch a lower-priced VR device Quest 3S in September, which Tencent is predicted to introduce to the domestic market.
Samsung is likely to release its first XR headset running a Google-developed Android XR OS by the end of the year.
Related Listed Tickers:
Shengtian Network (盛天网络): its cloud gaming platform SuiLeYou (“随乐游”) has integrated into the Rokid ecosystem.
Wanglong (网龙): invests in Rokid.
Huace Film & TV (华策影视): invests in Lanting Digital (兰亭数字).
Fengshang Culture (锋尚文化): implements AR for cultural tourism in Shanghai, Hangzhou.
Hengxin Oriental (恒信东方): XR game content development.
Silkroad Vision (丝路视觉): via subsidiary Silkroad Vision Creation focuses on B2B XR content.
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AR paths diverge; the ideal scenario might not be far off.
Overseas: Ray-Ban Meta integrates AI, significantly boosting shipments.
Domestic: AR’s market share rapidly rises; all “AR Four Majors” see new financing in 2023.
2H24 XR industry major timeline.
(Blank lines)
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From a product iteration standpoint, AR device evolution splits along two main lines:
Domestic “AR Four Majors” aim first to showcase “tech attributes” in consumer AR, opting for the most suitable price-to-performance optical combiners and screens from the outset, aiming to approach the “ideal” AR device form factor. Hence, in 2024, brands such as Thunderbird (雷鸟创新), XREAL, and Rokid are employing Birdbath plus Micro-OLED solutions widely seen as best for consumer AR devices.
Meta’s Reality Labs has reorganized so that the Quest “metaverse” and “smart glasses” wearable lines have parallel status. Meta’s concept for smart glasses is “launch the glasses first, then add AR display.” As advanced tech gradually matures, they build “tech attributes” atop ordinary eyewear. Meta’s smart glasses partner with Ray-Ban, which enjoys brand/channel advantages in the eyewear space plus strong fashion and ergonomic expertise.
Because domestic “AR Four Majors” and Meta’s line differ in approach (the “Four Majors” aim for near-ideal AR devices, while Meta’s glasses evolve step by step from standard eyeglasses), they also diverge in product positioning and pricing.
Figure: AR Glasses Product Evolution
Ray-Ban + Meta: Start from normal eyewear
- Add camera & speaker
- Add AI
- Add display
...
Goal: Ideal AR glasses
Try diffraction waveguides + Micro-LED
Better technology route
<----------
Meanwhile, the domestic route uses a
split AR design, Birdbath & Micro-OLED, etc.
(Source: TheVerge, Meta announcements, brand official sites, CITIC Jiantou)
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Meta’s smart glasses add “tech” features to normal eyewear, bridging from “regular glasses” to “AR,” gradually familiarizing users with wearing smart glasses. By contrast, the “AR Four Majors” in China push B2B. Meta primarily targets C2C leisure/entertainment scenarios.
In terms of pricing, a basic Ray-Ban brand sun lens typically costs around USD 150, while Ray-Ban Stories with camera/calling retails for USD 299. So that ~USD 150 premium is the “tech attribute” add-on.
The second-gen Ray-Ban Meta is likewise priced USD 299, includes Llama 3, continuing the affordable user-acquisition approach.
Figure: Ray-Ban Sunglasses vs. Ray-Ban Meta pricing
Ray-Ban base model: ~USD 150
Ray-Ban Meta: from USD 299
(Source: Ray-Ban official, Meta official, CITIC Jiantou)
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China’s “AR Four Majors” aim to adopt fairly mature, cost-effective hardware & technology approaches, approximating the ideal AR glasses from the start. Hence the Four Majors cover broad downstream scenarios. Rokid, for instance, spans both enterprise and consumer—covering industrial, power, culture/tourism, education, medical, etc.
Consumer (C) scenarios: e.g., smart office, gaming/entertainment. Short-term, gaming is the easiest use case for consumer AR. Over time, office productivity is the next frontier. AR glasses might transition from purely gaming to a “Pad/notebook alternative.”
Enterprise (B) scenarios: e.g., industrial, power, culture/tourism, education, medical, automotive. Short-term, industrial manufacturing and training have the highest commercialization. Advertising, expo, and tourism also see strong needs. Mid/long-term, healthcare, military security, real estate remodeling might unlock further potential.
Table: Coverage of AR Four Majors across downstream industries
Ind. Pwr Tour Edu Med Auto Office Ent. Retail Transport
Rokid √ √ √ √ √ √ √ √ √
Thunderbird √ √ √ √ √ √
XREAL √ √ √ √
INMO √ √ √ √ √ √
(Source: EO Intelligence, CITIC Jiantou)
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AI + AR offers huge possibilities. Glasses could become the ideal hardware platform, with voice-based simplification of gestures, first-person recognition of objects/text, and on-the-spot generation of digital visuals. Both domestic and global players are building “AI + AR” ecosystems:
Meta: On April 23, 2024, Ray-Ban Meta integrated Meta AI with the new Llama 3 model, enabling voice-based interaction, object detection, text translation, etc.
Thunderbird (雷鸟): Among the most enthusiastic about AI + AR in China. On Dec 27, 2023, it launched RayNeo AI in closed beta. Official posts say RayNeo AI offers multi-modal understanding: natural language + vision.
Figure: Thunderbird’s Self-Developed RayNeo AI
It supports advanced voice Q&A, e.g., planning itineraries, navigation, booking ferry tickets, running multiple apps via voice. Going forward, it may combine large-model generation with real-world contexts, forming “virtual + real” visuals.
(Source: Thunderbird XR WeChat public, Tech Finance Bureau, TheVerge, CITIC Jiantou)
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Multi-modal AI + AR: voice, vision, etc. Future Meta AR products might add “visual overlay” for real-world synergy.
Meta AI:
Knowledge / Encyclopedia: camera sees landmarks, relics, then uses speech for introduction. Culture/tourism is also a prime B2B domain for XR.
Translation: it can parse text in front. AR glasses might do real-time speech translations.
Thunderbird: According to official posts, RayNeo AI also has “vision understanding,” scheduled to go live in 2024. This includes spatial relationships, object counting, scene recognition.
(Source: Thunderbird XR WeChat, Tech Finance Bureau, TheVerge, CITIC Jiantou)
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AR paths diverge; the ideal scenario may be near.
Overseas: Ray-Ban Meta w/ AI sees big volume.
Domestic: AR’s share leaps; “Four Majors” all financed in 2023.
2H24 XR timeline.
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Reorganize Reality Labs to boost wearable significance. Per The Verge, Meta is splitting RL into:
“Metaverse” for Quest & MR,
“Wearables” for Ray-Ban Meta & other glasses.
This raises wearables within the company.
From a technical viewpoint:
Quest uses video see-through (VST) for advanced mixing: cameras capture the environment, project onto a screen, user sees immersive.
AR glasses adopt optical see-through (OST): user sees the real world directly through transparent or translucent glass, combined with overlaid digital content.
Figure: Meta’s Reality Labs Reorganization
Metaverse Dept. Wearables Dept.
(Source: TheVerge, Tuoluo Institute, CITIC Jiantou)
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On July 31, CFO Susan Li said: thanks to the Ray-Ban Meta’s robust sell-through, product-market fit, synergy with AI, the company will pivot some resources toward AR glasses R&D.
FY2024 losses at Reality Labs: 2Q24 RL revenue was $352m (+27.90% YoY) as Quest volumes rose, but operating losses widened 20.03% to $4.488bn. Cost growth primarily from payroll and inventory. For 2024, RL product & ecosystem R&D remain high, including AR. Losses thus further expand.
Figure: Meta Reality Labs Revenue & Operating Loss (USD mn)
(Chart with revenue & operating loss)
(Source: Meta disclosures, CITIC Jiantou)
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April 2024: AI functionality added, new version featuring Meta Llama 3.
Strategy: “first build a normal glasses with added camera/comms, next incorporate AR.” The early generation cost $299. The second-generation Ray-Ban Meta launched at Connect 2023, upgrading hardware & adopting the Qualcomm Snapdragon AR1 Gen1. Also $299.
April 23, 2024: AI features live, with Llama 3 powering voice commands, object recognition, translation, etc. “Hey Meta” voice triggers tasks like call/music/camera.
Figure: Ray-Ban Meta iteration path
(Source: TheVerge, Ray-Ban official, Meta official, CITIC Jiantou)
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Meta AI significantly boosts shipments.
Ray-Ban Meta sold 360k units in 4Q23, 100k units in 1Q24 (IDC), total 460k. 2Q24 ~500k, full year could exceed 1.5 million.
Currently the AI feature is US/Canada only, English only. Once more regions/languages open, shipments should expand.
“AI + AR” is the ultimate. AR vs. “smart glasses” differ primarily in displays, but microphone, speaker, camera are the same. Ray-Ban Meta has integrated multi-modal large models, providing voice interactions in addition to gestures or eye-tracking.
Figure: Ray-Ban Meta quarterly shipments
(Bar chart: 4Q23 ~ 360k, 1Q24 ~ 100k, 2Q24E ~ 500k total.)
(Source: IDC, TheVerge, CITIC Jiantou)
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Quest 3 launched Sept. 2023 with hardware upgrades but higher price ($500 vs. Quest 2’s $300).
First-quarter shipments trail Quest 2. According to Counterpoint, Quest 3’s initial quarter is -33% vs. Quest 2’s. Quest 2 sold 20+ million lifetime, while Quest 3 was ~1 million by June 2024.
Quest 2 stock is winding down, so near-term Quest 3 will see share. But a cheaper Quest 3S is rumored, likely the main volume driver.
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Figure: Quest 3 specs
Screen: Fast-LCD
Refresh: Up to 120Hz
Optics: Pancake
FOV: ~110°H, 96°V
IPD: 53-75mm
Hand tracking: yes
Eye tracking: no
Color pass-through: yes
Tracking: 6DoF inside-out
Storage: 8GB +128GB
Price: from $499
Meta Connect 2024: Sept 25-26. Typically reveals VR/AR updates. This time might see Quest 3S & code-named “Orion” AR glasses, but the latter only for employee testing, official release in 2027.
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Lower price, same XR2 Gen2 CPU, color pass-through, but uses older Fresnel optics from Quest 2, resolution 1920×3664, PPD ~20 vs. Quest 3’s 25.
Launch date: rumored for Connect in September.
Likely to outship Quest 3 if priced significantly lower, especially if Tencent distributes in China.
(Source: TheVerge, TheInformation, VRAR Planet, CITIC Jiantou)
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Quest Store: ~3,000 apps, curated. Apple Vision Pro can run 1.5 million iPhone/iPad apps.
Ecosystem synergy: TheInformation says in early 2024, Meta refused Google’s Android XR platform on Quest. That synergy is not reached yet.
Figures: Apple, Meta, Google hardware, app ecosystems…
(Source: TheInformation, UploadVR, Tuoluo Institute, CITIC Jiantou)
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Meta Horizon OS opening to 3rd-party OEMs (ASUS, Lenovo, Microsoft).
Multiple hardware => bigger user base => more dev interest => bigger content ecosystem. Mark Zuckerberg on the 1Q24 call said: hardware diversity can mirror PC markets, with desktops, “light” laptops, gaming laptops, etc. Similarly, VR for office, VR for fitness, VR for entertainment, etc. fueling content and user growth.
Figure: Partners for Meta Horizon OS
(ASUS, Lenovo, Microsoft)
(Source: Meta official, CITIC Jiantou)
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Recent big spending:
Magic Leap: May 2023, multi-year patent licensing & partial hardware cooperation; Meta invests billions USD.
EssilorLuxottica: July 2024, it was confirmed Meta will invest billions to acquire a 5% stake of Ray-Ban parent.
Figure: Meta’s XR Gaming Investments
(Beat Games, Sanzaru, Ready At Dawn, etc.)
(Source: Financial Times, Tuoluo Research, CITIC Jiantou)
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Despite multiple setbacks, Google remains active.
Hardware: Google Glass launched 2012, pivoted to Enterprise edition, ended 2023. “Iris” AR project paused.
Software: ARCore dev toolkit from 2017. In May 2024, they announced “Project Astra” AI assistant with real-time multi-modality. They also partnered with Samsung & Qualcomm for an XR headset, announced early 2023.
(Blank)
(Source: Tuoluo Institute, BusinessInsider, AndroidPolice, CITIC Jiantou)
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Three rumored: 1) standard AR glasses, 2) cheaper Vision Pro, 3) more advanced Vision Pro gen2.
Mark Gurman says Apple’s in-house AR Glasses might be akin to Ray-Ban + Meta, with no HUD, reliant on cameras + voice + AI.
VisionOS App Store surpasses 2,500 native spatial apps, slightly below Quest’s 3,000 but also allows 1.5 million iOS 2D apps.
Figure: Apple Vision Pro’s apps
(TikTok, MS Teams, NBA, etc.)
(Source: TheVerge, KechuangBoard Daily, VRAR, CITIC Jiantou)
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AR paths diverge; the ideal scenario might be near.
Overseas: Ray-Ban Meta with AI sees big volume.
Domestic: AR share leaps, “Four Majors” financed in 2023.
2H24 XR timeline.
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AR outgrew VR. In 2023, AR took 36.1% share.
IDC data: 2023 domestic AR/VR shipments = 725k (-39.8% YoY), AR=262k (+154.4%), VR=463k (-57.9%). 4Q AR 118k, VR 110k.
1Q24: total 107k, AR=52k, VR=55k.
Figures: quarterly VR vs. AR shipments, 2023 ratio
(Source: IDC, CITIC Jiantou)
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The Four Majors (Rokid, Thunderbird, XREAL, INMO) remain dominant, 2023 CR4=88.0%.
XREAL leads at 31.6%.
Thunderbird 23.1%.
Rokid 18.4%.
Pie Chart: China AR Market (All Products)
(Source: Kuluo Tech, IDC, VR TuoLuo, brand sites, CITIC Jiantou)
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16 new AR glasses launched 1H24 (Tuoluo data). Rokid, Thunderbird, XREAL use Birdbath + Micro-OLED. Later, as diffractive waveguide + Micro-LED matures, that may become mainstream.
Table: 1H24 China AR New Launches
(Brand, date, screen/optics, weight, price, etc.)
(Source: Tuoluo Research, CITIC Jiantou)
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Founded July 2014, focuses on AR glasses solutions + YodaOS, covering 80+ countries. In 2018 launched the single-lens integrated AR Glass. In April 2024, released Rokid AR Lite.
Jan 2024: new financing worth ~CNY 500 million, post-money valuation ~CNY 13.5 bn. Proceeds to B2B expansion.
Figure: Rokid’s Growth Timeline
(2014~2024 major events)
(Source: ITJuzi, EO Intelligence, IT House, CITIC Jiantou)
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314 total. XREAL & Thunderbird each exceed 160. The AR sector invests heavily in R&D, typically >65% ratio. Rokid invests even more.
Rokid’s Key Tech:
Next-gen AR OS “YodaOS-Master,” globally advanced cross-platform resource scheduling.
Partner with LiJie Tech to embed GritGene rendering engine via OpenXR.
In Apr 2024, launched the new Rokid AR Lite with space computing. Founding CEO Zhu Mingming states they aim to replace the tablet in light-office scenarios.
Self-developed AR creation tool “Lingjing (ARMaz3)” reduces dev barrier with drag-and-drop.
Collaborations with Qualcomm, HiSilicon, etc.
(Source: EO Intelligence, Zhidx, CITIC Jiantou)
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Over 1 million enterprise + consumer users. Consumer daily actives ~30k, monthly actives ~40%, avg daily usage >1h, 20% paying.
2023 market share 27.9%.
Strong overseas push.
2023 Black Friday: orders up 500% YoY, GMV up 5x.
Nov 22, 2023: Japan NTT Docomo includes Rokid Max & Rokid Station in 261 offline shops.
Figure: Amazon US “Rokid Air Entertainment Bundle,” “Rokid Max” details
(Source: EO Intelligence, IT House, Amazon, CITIC Jiantou)
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Over 2,200 verified devs, 50% enterprise-level. 200+ content apps in AR store, e.g., Bilibili, Suileyou, Alibaba Cloud, 3D video.
Ecosystem grows via dev competitions, campus training, “Rokid Space Station” funding, etc.
Fig: Rokid AR Store apps
(Source: Rokid official, EO Intelligence, CITIC Jiantou)
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Launched AR Lite in April 2024, focusing on “fun” + productivity.
Supports Android/iOS/macOS wireless casting to offset the limited local AR app library.
Multiple control methods: ray pointers, trackpads, voice, or external keyboard/mouse.
Figure: Rokid AR Lite usage demos (spatial pointer, trackpad, voice, Bluetooth)
(Source: Rokid official, CITIC Jiantou)
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B2B solutions crucial to short-term revenue. The brand covers industries including industrial, power, culture/tourism, education, medical, automotive, featuring major enterprise clients.
E.g., China General Nuclear, CHN Energy, State Grid, etc.
Figure: AR-based “light show” in Xi’an Datang Everbright City, AR-based cultural tourism, plus AR-based schooling projects with Hangzhou’s Sandun Elementary.
(Source: Rokid official, EO Intelligence, CITIC Jiantou)
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Late 2023, Rokid joined Wenzhou Medical University Eye & Ophthalmic Hospital, China Eye Valley Wenzhou Eye & Vision Innovation Center, etc., to apply for “Proactive Health & Aging” key R&D.
Project: “AI+AR panoramic compensation system for low vision.” Rokid leads hardware & software dev, medical experts provide optical and clinical feedback.
(Source: Aibang VR, CITIC Jiantou)
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Founded 2017, rebranded from “Nreal” to “XREAL” May 2023.
Jan 2024, raised $60m at $1.6bn valuation, from unnamed investors, used for production expansion and so forth.
Timeline: from 2017 to 2024
(Source: 36Kr, EO Intelligence, ITJuzi, CITIC Jiantou)
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Shipped 98k units, mostly XREAL Air, leading the AR market.
Early 2024: launched XREAL Air2 Ultra. On July 31, it arrived in China for CNY 3,999 (~$550). Enhanced visuals, hand tracking, strong compatibility.
Fig: XREAL Air² Ultra JD.com listing with 2k+ reviews
(Source: XREAL official, JD.com, IDC, 36Kr, CITIC Jiantou)
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ByteDance: in Mar 2024 acquired Shenzhen DaShi Future Tech (Oladance brand) for 300-500m CNY. Oladance focuses on “OWS open wear-style audio.” ByteDance likely merges prior AR expertise with OWS audio for “smart glasses + audio + AI” as a stepping stone to AR.
Huawei: 2021 launched HarmonyOS-based “Huawei Smart Glasses,” pivoting to audio glasses. Sept 2023 launched “Huawei Smart Glasses 2,” May 2024 integrated Pangu AI.
Xiaomi: in Aug 2022, ecosystem partner Fengchao Tech. introduced “Mijia Glasses Camera,” partly AR with Micro-OLED. Apr 2024: “MIJIA Smart Audio Glasses Lite,” from CNY 499.
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AR paths diverge; ideal scenario near.
Overseas: Ray-Ban Meta w/ AI sees big volumes.
Domestic: AR share leaps, “Four Majors” financed in 2023.
2H24 XR timeline.
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Meta to reveal first internal AR glasses + Quest 3S (lower cost) at Connect in Sept. The cheaper model likely outperforms Quest 3 in volume.
PICO: Aug 20 event, possibly PICO 4S.
Samsung: Possibly releasing a Google-developed “Android XR” device by year end.
Fig: 2H24 XR timeline
(Source: TheVerge, VRAR Planet, CITIC Jiantou)
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AR paths diverge; ideal scenario near.
Overseas: Ray-Ban Meta & AI.
Domestic: AR share leaps, “Four Majors” financed.
2H24 XR timeline.
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AI+AR has vast imaginative potential; glasses may well be the ideal hardware. Swift iteration in both software and hardware sets up a content explosion. The AI assistant fosters improved human–computer interaction. Combining voice & visual recognition simplifies usage, expanding scenarios and boosting sales. Ray-Ban Meta’s AI-based surge reaffirms “smart glasses + AI” is no gimmick. In future, AI can also generate VR/AR content, so as hardware evolves from earphones to phone-level features, use-cases expand. That synergy of hardware & software hastens a content boom.
2H24 overseas catalysts:
Meta: first internal AR glasses, plus a cheaper Quest 3S in September (likely introduced by Tencent domestically).
Samsung: likely releasing an XR headset with Google’s Android XR by year’s end.
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Sector growth may miss expectations; VR/AR product rollouts could lag schedule; generative AI may not progress as hoped; synergy across verticals could disappoint; compute resources, data quality/quantity, user adoption may all undershoot; risk of technology monopoly, data bias, algorithmic discrimination, transparency, heightened regulatory complexity, policy/regulatory risk, or suboptimal commercialization. Additional legal/regulatory, copyright, deepfake, ethics/human rights, content ecosystem & governance challenges could emerge. Potential shifting user aesthetics or user behavior also present risks.
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Yang Aili: Chief analyst for Media & Internet, CITIC Jiantou Securities. Master’s in communications from Renmin University. Former analyst at Baidu & Sina, then worked in securities at BOC International and GF Securities. Joined CITIC Jiantou in Apr 2019. Among accolades: 2019 & 2020 wind “Culture & Media” No.1 & No.2, 2020 Sina Gold Kirin 2nd place in “Media Rising Analysts,” etc.
Assistant: Cai Jiacheng, Media & Internet research.
AI 落地理想载体,海外大厂产品发布在即
AI+AR 想象空间广阔,眼镜有望成为理想硬件载体。
软硬加速迭代为内容发展奠定基础。
Meta AI 落地 Ray-Ban Meta 刺激出货量增长:
AI 助手带来交互体验升级,语音交互结合视觉识别,简化操作,扩大应用场景,满足用户需求,刺激销量增长。验证“智能眼镜+AI”的需求。
未来 AI 还能实现虚实内容生成,在光学方案和屏幕等硬件技术的加持下,智能眼镜从智能音箱向智能手机升级,应用场景再次扩大。因此软硬件加速迭代,内容爆发也就指日可待。
24H2 海外催化:AR 硬件,Meta 预计发布首款内部测试版 AR 眼镜;同时,Meta 预计将在 9 月发布价位更低的 VR 设备 Quest 3S,预计由腾讯引进国内发售。
三星有望年底发布首款搭载谷歌开发的 Android XR 操作系统的 XR 头显。
相关标的:盛天网络(云游戏平台随乐游已接入 Rokid 生态)、网龙(投资 Rokid)、华策影视(投资兰亭数字)、锋尚文化(落地上海、杭州的 AR 文旅)、恒信东方(XR 游戏内容开发)、丝路视觉(旗下丝路视创专注 B 端 XR 内容开发)等。
1
(空行若干)
AR 发展路径存差异,理想形态指日可待
海外:Ray-Ban Meta 上线 AI 功能,显著拉动销量
国内:AR 市占快速提升,AR 四小龙今年均获融资
2024 年下半年 XR 行业大事日历
(空行若干)
2
从产品迭代方式看,AR 设备的产品迭代分为两个方向:
国内“AR 四小龙”首要是展现产品“科技”属性,在消费级 AR 设备中,选用价格最合适、技术较成熟的光学组合器、屏幕等技术,从最初就尽可能贴近 AR 设备的理想形态。因此 2024 年,雷鸟创新、XREAL、Rokid 等发布的新产品,都采用了目前最适合消费级 AR 设备的 Birdbath 和 Micro-OLED 的光学组合器和屏幕的组合方案。
Meta 旗下 Reality Labs 经过改革,现 Quest 所属的“元宇宙”和智能眼镜所属的“可穿戴设备”已成为并列部门。其中智能眼镜的产品理念是“先发展智能眼镜产品,随后叠加 AR 显示”。在先进技术逐步成熟的过程中,在普通眼镜的基础上增加“科技”属性。因此,Meta 旗下的智能眼镜产品选择与 Ray-Ban 合作,后者在眼镜产业中拥有显著的品牌知名度、渠道优势,也有在时尚度、舒适度等眼镜设计方面的丰富经验。
由于国内“AR 四小龙”与 Meta 的智能眼镜产品线采用不一样的路径,接近 AR 眼镜虚实结合的理想形态,因此在产品定位、定价等方面也存在差异。
图表:AR 眼镜产品形态的发展路径
Ray-Ban + Meta:从普通眼镜开始
- 搭载摄像头和扬声器
- 搭载 AI 能力
- 搭载屏幕
...
------------------->
理想 AR 眼镜形态
尝试衍射光波导和 Micro-LED 等
更优技术路径
<-------------------
分体式 AR 眼镜,采用目前
主流的 Birdbath 和 Micro-
OLED 技术路径
资料来源:TheVerge,Meta 公告,各品牌官网,中信建投
3
Meta 智能眼镜是在普通眼镜的基础上叠加“科技”属性,是从普通眼镜到 AR 眼镜的演变,逐步让用户习惯佩戴智能眼镜,完成用户教育。因此,与国内“AR 四小龙”发力 B 端相反,Meta 的使用场景以休闲娱乐为核心,主要面向 C 端市场。
从定价看,基础款的 Ray-Ban 太阳眼镜定价在 150 美元左右,而叠加了拍摄、通话功能的初代 Ray-Ban Stories 定价为 299 美元起。对用户而言,这 150 美元的溢价就是“科技”属性的溢价。
第二代 Ray-Ban Meta 同样定价 299 美元,搭载 Llama 3 大模型,同样延续了定价亲民、培养用户的定位。
图表:Ray-Ban 太阳眼镜和 Ray-Ban Meta 价格对比
Ray-Ban 太阳眼镜的最低售价在 150 美元左右
Ray-Ban Meta 的最低售价为 299 美元
资料来源:Ray-Ban 官网,Meta 官网,中信建投
4
**国内“AR 四小龙”**的产品设计理念是选用相对最成熟、成本最合适的硬件和技术方案,尽可能贴近 AR 眼镜的终极形态。因此在使用场景上,国内“AR 四小龙”的下游覆盖范围广泛。以 Rokid 为例,其产品矩阵丰富,覆盖企业级和消费级产品。其中消费级产品覆盖智慧办公、游戏娱乐等主要场景,而企业级覆盖了下游的工业、电力、文旅展览、教育、医疗等场景。
C 端场景:包括智慧办公、游戏娱乐等场景。短期看,游戏娱乐是目前最成熟的应用场景,且最符合目前主流 AR 眼镜消费者的画像,商业化价值最易被释放。中长期看,办公场景是目前厂商大力去拓展的领域,从产品定位看,AR 眼镜有望从对标游戏机向 Pad 或笔记本电脑扩展。
B 端场景:工业、电力、文旅展览、教育、医疗、汽车等场景。短期看,工业制造和教育培训是目前落地价值和商业化价值最高的场景,广告、展览和文旅也有强需求。中长期看,医疗、军事安防和地产家装的需求有待释放,且具有高落地和商业化价值。
图表:国内“AR 四小龙”产品的下游行业覆盖范围
工业 电力 文旅展览 教育 医疗 汽车 办公 娱乐 零售 出行
Rokid √ √ √ √ √ √ √ √ √
雷鸟创新 √ √ √ √ √ √
XREAL √ √ √ √
INMO √ √ √ √ √ √
资料来源:亿欧智库,中信建投
5
AI+AR 想象空间广阔,眼镜有望成为理想的硬件载体:语音交互进一步简化手势操作、第一视角图像识别物体和文字、根据现实场景生成数字内容实现虚实交互……海内外厂商积极 AI+AR 生态架构:
Meta:2024 年 4 月 23 日,Ray-Ban Meta 上线 Meta AI 功能,搭载最新的 Meta Llama 3 大模型,实现语音交互、物体识别、文字翻译等诸多功能
雷鸟创新:目前在 AI+AR 结合方面最积极的国内公司之一。2023 年 12 月 27 日,雷鸟在其公众号发布自研大模型语音助手的 RayNeo AI 内测上线。公众号显示,RayNeo AI 具备自然语言对话、视觉理解等多模态能力。
图表:雷鸟创新自研的 RayNeo AI 具备自然语言交互能力,实现便捷问答功能。例如以下就展示了如何通过语音、使用 AR 眼镜,完成规划行程、导航、确定轮渡信息、语音调度不同应用程序、预定船票等任务。这些任务也有望通过大模型,结合现实场景,生成相应的数字内容,形成虚实结合的视觉和交互效果。
(有一段插图或描述,此处以文字简述)
资料来源:雷鸟 XR 公众号,科技财经局,TheVerge,中信建投
6
多模态 AI+AR:视觉识别 + 语音输出等多模态结合,未来 Meta 有望在其 AR 产品中落地视觉输出,落地虚实结合的交互功能。
Meta:Meta AI 具备视觉理解能力,包括:
科普 / 百科:通过摄像头识别景点、文物,并生成语音进行介绍。文旅场景也是目前国内 XR 产品落地最多的 B 端场景之一。
翻译:Meta AI 现可以识别眼前的外文,实现类似文本翻译的功能。未来 AR 眼镜也有望实现同声传译的功能。
雷鸟创新:据雷鸟 XR 公众号,公司发布的 RayNeo AI 同样具备视觉理解能力,并将于 2024 年内上线。RayNeo AI 的视觉理解能力包括空间关系识别、物体计数和计算、场景理解。
(有示意图)
资料来源:雷鸟 XR 公众号,科技财经局,TheVerge,中信建投
7
AR 发展路径存差异,理想形态指日可待
海外:Ray-Ban Meta 上线 AI 功能,显著拉动销量
国内:AR 市占快速提升,AR 四小龙今年均获融资
2024 年下半年 XR 行业大事日历
8
重组 Reality Labs,提升可穿戴设备在内部业务的权重。据 The Verge,Meta 宣布将对旗下 Reality Labs 部门进行重组。后续将划分为两大部门:
1)“Metaverse”元宇宙部门将专注于 Quest 等 MR 产品线;
2)“可穿戴设备”部门主要负责 Ray-Ban Meta 等智能眼镜设备。
因此,调整后的 Meta 提升了可穿戴设备在内部业务上的权重。
从技术路径考虑:
Quest 系列头显基于视频透视(VST)技术,实现虚拟信息与现实环境的深度融合。该技术核心在于利用设备内置的摄像头及传感器捕捉真实环境图像,并实时投射至屏幕上,用户通过不透明的屏幕体验高度沉浸式的视觉效果。
AR 眼镜基于光学透视(OST)技术来实现虚实融合,用户可以直接透过透明 / 半透明的显示镜片直接观看到投射在真实环境中的虚拟内容,强调与真实世界的互动。
图表:Meta 重组旗下 Reality Labs 部门
Metaverse 元宇宙 Wearables 可穿戴设备
资料来源:TheVerge,陀螺研究院,中信建投
9
电话会多次证实 Meta 提升 AR 眼镜在产品线中的重要性。7 月 31 日,CFO Susan Li 在电话会表示,基于 Ray-Ban Meta 智能眼镜的脱销情况、产品市场契合度(PMF)、产品与公司的 AI 布局和与 AI 助手的适配度等因素,公司的投入将部分倾斜到 AR 眼镜的开发上。
2024 年 Reality Labs 的亏损将继续增长:
据 Meta 公告,2Q24 公司的 Reality Labs 部门实现收入 3.52 亿美元,同比增长 27.90%,主要系 Meta Quest 出货量实现同比净增长;但经营亏损扩大 20.03% 至 44.88 亿美元,成本和费用增长主要系员工薪酬支出和库存支出。展望 2024 年全年,Reality Labs 的产品和生态的开发投入还将继续增长,公司也将部分投入向 AR 产品倾斜,因此亏损同比也将继续扩大。
图表:Meta Reality Labs 部门收入和经营亏损情况(百万美元)
(图表中显示:Revenue, Operating Loss 走势)
(例)
2,000
1,000
0
-1,000
-2,000
-3,000
-4,000
-5,000
Revenue Operating Loss
2021 Q1 … etc.
资料来源:Meta 公告,中信建投
10
2024 年 4 月上线 AI 功能,新型号搭载 Meta Llama 3 大模型。
Meta 与 Ray-Ban 母公司 EssilorLuxottica 合作的智能眼镜坚持“先发展智能眼镜产品,随后叠加 AR 显示”的产品理念,从初代产品的拍摄、通话等基础功能,到最新一代已支持 Llama 3,通过 Meta AI 实现语音交互、物体识别、文字翻译等功能。
初代产品融合了摄像头、扬声器、麦克风和触控等技术,实现听音乐、通话、照片和视频拍摄、播报 Messenger 讯息等基础功能。售价为 299 美元起。
第二代智能眼镜 Ray-Ban Meta 于 2023 年 9 月在 Connect 2023 发布,摄像头、扬声器、麦克风、内存等硬件均升级,搭载高通骁龙 AR1 Gen1 平台,可连接 Facebook、Instagram 开启直播,支持在 WhatsApp 和 Messenger 视频通话中分享第一视角画面,起售价 299 美元。
2024 年 4 月 23 日,Ray-Ban Meta 上线 Meta AI 功能,搭载 Llama 3 大模型,实现语音交互、物体识别、文字翻译等。用户可通过“Hey Meta”唤醒语音交互,进行播放音乐、拍摄照片视频、电话等操作。
图表:Ray-Ban Meta 产品理念的迭代路径
(配合简要文字说明)
资料来源:TheVerge,Ray-Ban 官网,Meta 官网,中信建投
11
Meta AI 上线推动销量大幅增长。
Ray-Ban Meta 自发售后的两个季度:据 IDC,2023 年四季度和 2024 年一季度,Ray-Ban Meta 出货量分别为 36 万台和 10 万台,合计 46 万台。IDC 测算 2024 年二季度销量达 50 万台,全年销量有望超过 150 万。
目前 2024 年 4 月上线的 Meta AI 限美国和加拿大用户使用,仅支持英语,若后续在全球主要国家上线,销量预计将进一步增长。
“AI+AR”智能眼镜仍是智能眼镜的终极演化目标。AR 眼镜与智能眼镜在麦克风、扬声器、摄像头等方案上高度重合,核心区别在是否配备显示屏幕。Ray-Ban Meta 已实现多模态大模型融合,在手势操作、眼动追踪等交互方式外,提供了语音交互的方案。
图表:Ray-Ban Meta 的季度销量
(例)
60
50
40
30
20
10
0
4Q23 1Q24 2Q24E
资料来源:IDC,TheVerge,中信建投
12
Quest 3 发布于 2023 年 9 月,配置升级也有更高定价:
搭载高通骁龙 XR2 Gen 2,内置 8GB 内存,分辨率 2064×2208,高于 Quest 2 的 1832×1920,支持 90Hz/120Hz 刷新率,采用 Pancake 镜片。售价 500 美元,对比 Quest 2 的 300 美元起更贵。
更高定价导致首季度销量不及 Quest 2。
据 Counterpoint,Quest 3 上市季度的出货量比 Quest 2 上市季度下降 33%。Quest 2 自 2020 年 10 月发售累计超 2000 万台,而 Quest 3 截至 2024 年 6 月仅超 100 万台,新用户多数仍来自 Quest 2。
Quest 2 存货见底,短期 Quest 3 的出货量占比预计将提升。如果价位更低的 Quest 3S 在 9 月发布,出货量可能更主要地由后者贡献。
(内嵌一张图片或简要技术参数)
资料来源:UploadVR,VRAR 星球,Counterpoint,VR 陀螺,中信建投
13
图表:Quest 3 的配置参数
屏幕:Fast-LCD
刷新率:峰值 120Hz
光学方案:Pancake
视场角:H:110°, V:96°
IPD:53-75mm
手势识别:支持
眼动追踪:不支持
彩色 VST:支持
追踪定位:6DoF Inside-Out
存储:8GB+128GB
官方定价:499 美元起
Meta Connect 2024 将于 9 月 25~26 日举行,往年 Connect 大会都会展示最新 VR/AR 技术和设备。
Quest 3S:有望在本次大会上公布,预计是 Quest 3 的平价版。
代号“Orion”的员工测试版 AR 眼镜:同样有望在 9 月发布,但仅供内部测试,正式版要到 2027 年。
(贴 1~2 行简要总结)
资料来源:Business Insider,TheVerge,XAPP,VR 陀螺,中信建投
14
据 The Verge 等媒体,Quest 3S 将于 9 月 Connect 大会发布,内部代号 Project Ventura,参数对比如下:
与 Quest 3 相同点:1)同款骁龙 XR2 Gen 2;2)均有彩色透视;3)游戏应用互通。
不同点:1)从 1 颗红外到 2 颗红外;2)光学方案沿用 Quest 2 的菲涅尔;3)分辨率 1920×3664,但 PPD 只有 20(Quest 3 的 PPD=25)。
定价更低 + 国内引进,Quest 3S 首季度出货量有望超 Quest 3。据 The Information,Meta 和腾讯计划 2024 年四季度在国内发售 Quest 3S。
(有示意图) 15
Quest Store 应用数量相对较少,走精品路线。
截至 2024 年 3 月末约 3000+ 款应用,而苹果 Vision Pro 兼容超 150 万个 2D 应用。
巨头竞争下,生态互通问题未解决。The Information 称,2024 年初 Meta 拒绝在 Quest 中搭载谷歌 Android XR 平台,未实现合作。
图表:苹果、Meta、谷歌硬件和应用生态差异…
(有对比概述)
资料来源:The Information, UploadVR, 陀螺研究院,中信建投
16
向第三方开放 Meta Horizon OS:4 月 22 日,Meta 宣布向第三方硬件商开放 MR 平台操作系统 Meta Horizon OS,首批包括华硕、联想、微软 Xbox。
硬件多样性与软件生态形成良性循环。扎克伯格在 1Q24 电话会表示,不同厂商会根据需求差异化设计 MR 设备,如办公型、游戏型、娱乐型等,从而吸引更多用户和开发者。
图表:华硕、联想、微软基于 Meta Horizon OS 的 XR 产品定位
(各自描述)
资料来源:Meta 官网、公告,中信建投
17
近年多笔大额投资:
2023 年 5 月 22 日,Meta 与 Magic Leap 达成专利授权合作数十亿美元,合作开发下一代 AR 产品。
2024 年 7 月,Meta 将花费数十亿美元收购 Ray-Ban 母公司 EssilorLuxottica 5% 股份。
图表:Meta 在 XR 游戏领域的投资梳理
(多家 VR 工作室收购案)
资料来源:Financial Times,陀螺研究院,中信建投
19
XR 布局几经波折,但投入仍在持续:
硬件:2012 年 Google Glass 面向消费级,后停产转向 B 端,最终 2023 年停止。代号“ Iris”的 AR 眼镜项目被搁置。
软件:2017 年推出 ARCore 开发工具包,2022 年 5 月新增地理空间 API,支持广泛平台。2024 年 5 月发布 AI 助手 Project Astra,可实现实时多模态推理。
(简单表格)
资料来源:陀螺研究院,Business Insider,Android Police,中信建投
20
爆料三款:1)智能眼镜 2)平价 Vision Pro 3)功能更完备的新一代 Vision Pro。
Mark Gurman 称苹果正开发不带 HUD 的智能眼镜,与 Ray-Ban+Meta 路线类似,通过摄像头 + 语音 + AI 助手来进行交互。
App Store 原生空间应用已达 2500+,稍少于 Meta Quest Store 的 3000+,但兼容数十万 2D 应用。
图表:Apple Vision Pro 的应用
(示例:TikTok, MS Teams, NBA)
资料来源:TheVerge,科创板日报,VR 陀螺,中信建投
21
AR 发展路径存差异,理想形态指日可待
海外:Ray-Ban Meta 上线 AI 功能,显著拉动销量
国内:AR 市占快速提升,AR 四小龙今年均获融资
2024 年下半年 XR 行业大事日历
22
AR 设备销量增速高于 VR,2023 年 AR 出货占比达 36.1%。
据 IDC,2023 年中国 AR/VR 头显出货 72.5 万台,同比 -39.8%,AR 出货 26.2 万台,同比 +154.4%,VR 出货 46.3 万台,同比 -57.9%。AR 占整体 36.1%,Q4 首次单季 AR 出货 11.8 万,VR 出货 11 万。
2024 年 Q1,AR 出货 5.2 万,VR 出货 5.5 万。
图表:各季度中国 VR 和 AR 出货量(万台)
图表:2023 年中国 VR 和 AR 出货量市场占比
资料来源:IDC,中信建投
23
AR 四小龙仍占高市占率。2023 年 CR4=88.0%,Rokid / 雷鸟创新 / XREAL / INMO 位居前列。
XREAL:31.6% 排名第一
雷鸟创新:23.1% 第二
Rokid:18.4% 第三
INMO:前四
图表:按全产品出货量计算,国内 AR 市场竞争格局
(饼图/百分比)
资料来源:库洛科技,IDC,VR 陀螺,各品牌官网,中信建投
24
陀螺研究院统计,上半年共发布 16 款 AR 眼镜,国内“AR 四小龙”Rokid、雷鸟创新、XREAL 均有新品,均采用 Birdbath + Micro-OLED 方案。随着衍射光波导 + Micro-LED 成熟,未来有望转向新的主流。
图表:2024 年上半年国内 AR 新品发布情况
(16 行,对照时间、品牌、售价)
资料来源:陀螺研究院,中信建投
25
成立于 2014 年 7 月,聚焦 AR 眼镜软硬件及 YodaOS,业务覆盖 80 多国。2018 年发布一体式单目 AR 眼镜 Rokid Glass。2024 年 4 月发布 Rokid AR Lite。
2024 年 1 月完成新融资估值 135 亿元。C+ 轮近 5 亿元,主要用于 B 端服务和产研。
图表:Rokid 发展历程
(2014~2024 主要里程碑)
资料来源:IT 桔子, 亿欧智库, IT 之家, 中信建投
26
Rokid 以 314 项专利数领先。XREAL、雷鸟创新也在 160+,主要覆盖产品结构设计与感知交互技术等。
行业平均研发投入比达 65% 以上。Rokid 更高。
公司最新一代 AR 空间操作系统 YodaOS-Master,深度本地化与跨平台能力。7x24 产品支持。
资料来源:亿欧智库, 智东西, 中信建投
27
企业级 + 消费级累计用户破 100 万,消费级日活 3 万,月活超 40%,单日人均使用时长 >1h,付费率 20%。
2023 年出货量市占 27.9%,排第一。
海外:黑五当天订单量同比 +500%,GMV 同比 +5 倍。Docomo 部署其产品。
图表:美国区 Amazon 在售的 Rokid Air
(示例图)
资料来源:亿欧智库, IT 之家, Amazon, 中信建投
28
超 2200 个实名认证开发者,50% 为企业开发者,已积累 200+ 内容应用,包括哔哩哔哩、无影云电脑等。
每年举办 XR 创作大赛、AR 高校培训课程,“若琪空间站”计划等。
图表:Rokid AR Store 部分应用
(示例)
资料来源:Rokid 官网, 亿欧智库, 中信建投
29
C 端更新产品,娱乐 + 办公:2024 年 4 月推出 Rokid AR Lite,带空间计算能力。
支持手机、电脑投屏。
触屏板、空间射线、外置设备等操作选项,方便用户适配。
图表:Rokid AR Lite 操作方式
(空间射线、触控、语音、蓝牙等)
资料来源:Rokid 官网, 中信建投
30
B 端商业化:企业级应用、工业、电力、文旅、教育、医疗、汽车等多行业案例,如广核、华能、国网等大型客户。
超过 50% 开发者是企业级。
图表:Rokid 文旅、教育落地案例
(大唐不夜城 AR 光影秀等)
资料来源:Rokid 官网, 亿欧智库, 中信建投
31
与温州医科大学等联合申报“主动健康和人口老龄化科技应对”重点专项,项目内容为 “‘AI+AR’低视力全景代偿系统研发、应用和推广”。Rokid 负责硬件和软件系统开发,医疗专家提供临床测评。
资料来源:艾邦 VR, 中信建投
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成立于 2017 年,2023 年 5 月将 Nreal 升级为 XREAL,聚焦 AR 眼镜硬件。
2024 年 1 月获 6000 万美元融资,估值 16 亿美元,用于扩产,目标 2025 年产能达 200 万台。
图表:XREAL 发展历史
(2017~2024 时间线)
资料来源:36 氪, 亿欧智库, IT 桔子, 中信建投
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2022 年发布 XREAL Air,全年出货 9.8 万台,占据第一。
2024 年 1 月,XREAL 发布旗舰 AR 眼镜 XREAL Air2 Ultra。7 月 31 日国行发售,首发价 3999 元。兼容多设备。
图表:XREAL Air² Ultra 京东评价
(示例)
资料来源:XREAL 官网, 京东, IDC, 36 氪, 中信建投
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字节跳动:2024 年 3 月收购大十科技,品牌 Oladance,主营开放式音频,或与字节之前积累的 AR 项目融合,先做“眼镜 + 音频 + AI”,后做 AR。
华为:2021 年推出 HarmonyOS 智能眼镜,2023 年 9 月推出华为智能眼镜 2,2024 年 5 月接入盘古 AI。
小米:2022 年 8 月蜂巢科技推出“米家眼镜相机”,Micro-OLED+自由曲面,部分 AR 功能。2024 年 4 月出音频眼镜悦享版,499 元。
资料来源:Wellsenn XR, VR 陀螺, 中信建投
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AR 发展路径存差异,理想形态指日可待
海外:Ray-Ban Meta 上线 AI 功能,显著拉动销量
国内:AR 市占快速提升,AR 四小龙今年均获融资
2024 年下半年 XR 行业大事日历
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2024 年下半年海内外大厂产品发布计划:
Meta:9 月发布首款员工测试版 AR 眼镜 + Quest 3S
PICO:8 月 20 日新品沟通会,或发布 PICO 4S
三星:年底有望发布搭载谷歌 Android XR 操作系统的头显
图表:2024 年下半年 XR 行业大事
(时间节点)
资料来源:TheVerge, VRAR 星球, 中信建投
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AR 发展路径存差异,理想形态指日可待
海外:Ray-Ban Meta 上线 AI 功能,显著拉动销量
国内:AR 市占快速提升,AR 四小龙今年均获融资
2024 年下半年 XR 行业大事日历