DeepSeek's influence

Key Judgments and Details

DeepSeek's Market Position and Technological Capabilities

1. Surpassing Meta Llama:
   DeepSeek has outperformed Meta Llama in terms of technical capability but still lags behind first-tier players like OpenAI, Anthropic, and Google.

2. Open-Source and Innovation:
   DeepSeek’s open-source model and technical framework attract numerous AI researchers. However, its innovation capacity needs improvement, particularly in reasoning models and agent-based AI.

3. Potential of Reasoning Models:
   Enhancing reasoning models will significantly boost agent capabilities, facilitating further exploration in agent-based AI research.

Market Competition and User Needs

1. Three Market Segments (ToC, To Developer, To Enterprise):

   • ToC (Consumer Market): Chatbot frameworks gain attention but face high competition and low user switching costs.

   • To Developer (Developer Market): Developers demand efficient tools and frameworks, such as Cursor and Windsurf.

   • To Enterprise (Corporate Market): Enterprises require trust-building solutions with high-value key services, making user migration more challenging.

2. GPU Resource Utilization:
   Over the medium to long term, GPU resource consumption will decrease. Meta is likely to benefit most, but DeepSeek needs to scale up GPU investments for large-scale deployments.

Technical Architecture and Future Trends

1. Anthropic vs. OpenAI Architectures:
   Anthropic focuses on its Data architecture and reasoning models, while OpenAI demonstrates strength in RL (reinforcement learning)-based independent frameworks.

2. Next-Generation Intelligence:
   Under the Transformer architecture, DeepSeek exhibits high-speed potential but requires additional research for next-generation AI architectures and workflows.

3. Agent-Based Trend:
   The agent-centric approach represents the next phase of AI evolution. OpenAI, Anthropic, and Google are actively exploring this, though resource demands (e.g., 5–10% improvement in module performance) are high.

Challenges and Opportunities for DeepSeek

1. Traffic Management:
   DeepSeek must establish an efficient traffic management system to address user migration in the Chatbot ecosystem.

2. AGI (Artificial General Intelligence) Implementation:
   If AGI becomes a reality, Chatbots may serve as transitional products. DeepSeek needs to prepare for future intelligent technology demands.

3. Next "Aha Moment":
   The next breakthrough models, such as OpenAI’s 03 system or Anthropic’s Opus, could introduce new opportunities. DeepSeek must stay attentive to these advancements.

Competition Between Google and OpenAI

1. Google’s Perspective:
   Google’s comment on OpenAI (“No Motai”) underscores significant market impacts from intelligent technology advancements, reflected in DeepSeek’s user migration trends.

2. Full-Stack Strategy:
   Both Google and OpenAI are exploring Full-Stack models (e.g., Windows + Office integration). DeepSeek should strengthen its presence in this area.

Additional Insights

Market Inspiration:

• The evolution of intelligent technologies will drive the continuous growth of phased products and projects. User demand for intelligent models will continue to rise.

• DeepSeek needs sustained investment in traffic management, reasoning model optimization, and agent-based exploration to remain competitive.

Future Outlook:

• DeepSeek has potential in large-scale GPU deployment and next-generation intelligent architecture research but requires additional resources and technological breakthroughs.

• In the medium to long term, the growth of the AI industry will depend on hardware upgrades, infrastructure optimization, and reduced technology costs.