The Eve of AI Glasses Explosion: Unveiling the Hidden Champions

I. When Glasses Are No Longer Just Glasses

The latest prediction from IDC is like a bolt of thunder in the night sky: in 2025, the shipment volume of AI glasses in China will reach 2.8 million pairs, a year-on-year increase of 107%. Behind this number lies an industrial revolution more intense than that of smartphones - when a ordinary pair of glasses evolves into an all-day AI assistant, the way humans interact with the digital world will be completely rewritten. On February 19, the China Academy of Information and Communications Technology (CAICT) released the world's first AI glasses evaluation system, which is like installing a navigation system for this track. The performance of Ray-Ban Meta smart glasses in 7 modules and over 60 tests reveals a harsh reality: those who master the technical standards will rule the world. What's more interesting is that China Telecom's self-developed AI glasses are entering the countdown, and the time node of May 2025 coincides perfectly with the outbreak period predicted by IDC.

II. Decoding the Three Keys to Industry Explosion

1. Large Models Ignite the Demand Engine

The collective breakthrough of domestic large models has freed AI glasses from the shackles of "imported brains". When GPT-4 is no longer the only choice, the accuracy advantage of localized AI assistants in medical diagnosis, legal consultation, and educational tutoring scenarios has begun to emerge. It's no wonder that giants like ByteDance and Xiaomi are rushing into the market - whoever masters the fusion code of large models and hardware can secure a position in the trillion-level human-computer interaction market.

2. Technological Singularity is Approaching

Meta's exposed Supernova2 plan has leaked the secret: in 2025, it will launch Oakley smart glasses equipped with a display screen, and the design of moving the camera position from the corner of the frame to the center hides a deep reconstruction of sports scenes. More importantly, these products are breaking through the "four-hour battery life curse". The low-power technology accumulated by Star宸科技 in the security field may rewrite the industry's rules.

3. Policy Tailwinds are Blowing Strong

The "technology consumption" tone in the country's expanded domestic demand policy has pressed the acceleration button for AI glasses. This signal has already shown signs in the capital market: the stock price of Rockchip has risen by more than 15% in a month, and the direction of the dark current of funds is precisely those hardcore players who can fully absorb the policy dividends and technological dividends.

III. Dissecting the "Hidden Champions" in the Industry Chain

1. Star宸科技 (301536): The Breakthrough Maker in the Low-Power Track

• Technological Moat: Transferring the 0.5W ultra-low power consumption technology from the security field to AI glasses directly solves the industry's biggest pain point. Its self-developed ISP visual processing technology has surpassed the imaging effects of most mobile phone manufacturers in extreme environments such as strong light and backlight.

• Product Roadmap: The 2025 mass production plan seems conservative, but it actually hides a killer instinct. Its technological synergy with sports camera manufacturers gives it a natural advantage in the sports scene AI glasses market.

• Valuation Code: The current market value corresponds to the predicted shipment volume in 2025, and the single-machine value has a potential increase space of more than 3 times.

2. Rockchip (603893): The Hidden Hegemon of AIoT Chips

• Ecosystem Advantage: The market share of RK3588 chips in AR/VR devices has reached 37%, and this ecological migration ability is a dimensional打击 in the AI glasses track.

• Technical Reserve: Its self-developed RV series visual chips support 8K@60fps encoding and decoding, which is the hardest currency for AI glasses that need real-time environmental perception.

• Capacity Layout: The large-scale mass production ability of 12nm process technology ensures that it can take the largest share of the cake during the industry's outbreak period.

IV. The Three Key Factors in the Trillion-Dollar Market

1. Scene Definition War

Current players are stuck in the "all-in-one" product misunderstanding, but细分场景 (sub-scene) is the key to breaking the situation:

• Medical Scene: Need to conquer biological sensing technologies such as body temperature monitoring and pupil change tracking.

• Industrial Scene: The AR remote guidance function requires a delay of less than 50ms.

• Education Scene: Must solve the eye comfort problem of continuous use for more than 3 hours.

2. Data Sovereignty Game

The massive environmental data collected by AI glasses is triggering a new regulatory storm. Enterprises that can build local data processing capabilities will take the lead in compliance competition.

3. Cost Life Line

For every $10 reduction in BOM cost, the potential user group expands by 23%. This explains why Rockchip's 28nm process cost reduction solution has won the favor of giants like ByteDance.

V. The Darkness and Dawn Before Dawn

When Wellsenn XR predicts that the global sales volume will exceed 1.4 billion pairs in 2035, what we see is not only the shock of the numbers, but also a metaphor for an era: AI glasses may become the first wearable computing platform with a hundred million scale after smartphones.

But behind the狂欢 (crazy celebration), we need to think calmly:

• Supply Chain Maturity: The yield rate of micro camera modules is still hovering around 65%.

• Human-Machine Ethics Dilemma: The privacy controversy caused by all-day environmental perception is continuing to ferment.

• Technological Substitution Risk: The breakthrough of brain-computer interface technology may rewrite the entire track rules.

In this混战 (chaotic battle), two types of enterprises are expected to eventually win: one is the technical school like Star宸科技, which holds unique skills, and the other is the ecological builder like Rockchip, which is proficient in industrial collaboration. And when 2025 really comes, today's predicted data of 2.8 million pairs may just be the first footnote of this vast story.